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October 31, 2019 / by Matheus Palma / In Geopolitics

Mapping South American Turbulence

This Influence Map gives an overview of the recent Argentinian election and the stakeholders involved in the transition between conservative incumbent Mauricio Macri and the incoming Alberto Fernández, whose expected start date is slated for 10 December, 2019.

It is a turbulent time for politics in Argentina and the wider region - understanding the evolving players and key stakeholders in that transition is essential for businesses navigating that changing political and economic landscape.

How to read it?

All of the stakeholders listed to the right and left, most of whom were important supporters of the incoming President during the election, are primed (but not yet confirmed) to join the new President’s cabinet in various roles. The map also shows Fernández’s controversial choice of Vice-President - former leader Cristina Fernández de Kirchner – as well as the 4 primary coordinators of the transition between the two governments.

Through constant monitoring of a variety of public news sources (both through the use of our in-house technology, Atium, and through the domain experts we have placed in the region), the TSC team is capturing and updating any ‘whispers’ of possible appointments within the cabinet.

What does this mean for the region?

Having beaten the incumbent by nearly 8% in the presidential election, Mr. Fernández is hoped to be a catalyst for change in a country that is facing rising rates of poverty. The current players in the transition are still evolving, and the backgrounds and policies that those players are likely to bring to Argentina will have an impact not just on the local business environment in Argentina, but also on the wider region, especially with Brazil, Argentina’s largest commercial trade partner.

In a state of extreme uncertainty for the entire region, being armed with the most up-to-date and accurate data and its impact on the landscape(s) around it can help business leaders mitigate business and financial risk in uncertain political climates, and identify opportunities in their emerging stage.

How does Influence Mapping work?

Influence Mapping combines data-mining and modelling technologies with traditional approaches to strategically map, mine, and monitor complex business environments, networks of issues, stakeholders, positions, influence and interests. Influence Maps construct a high level network view of the key ‘influencers’ and models various points of entry into a network system.

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