The relationship between the United States and South Africa is facing a period of uncertainty. President Trump is not only taking a hard stance on trade and foreign policy, but also increasingly critical of several domestic policies including land laws and minority-ownership quotas.
We’ve mapped out the key players - policymakers, business leaders, and influencers - and their positions on these issues to better understand how they might influence the trade, investment and foreign policy relations between the two countries going forward.
Download the exclusive Stakeholder Influence Map.
From potential trade restrictions to geopolitical realignments, the outcomes of today’s diplomatic struggle will have long-term consequences for industries like automotive, agriculture, mining, technology, and finance. But who is really driving these decisions? And what does it mean for your business?
This post breaks down the key policies at stake - domestic and bilateral - and which stakeholders are influencing a possible shift in U.S.-South Africa relations.
Three major (policy) developments have alerted Trump to sharpen his view on South Africa: The recently-enacted Expropriation Act (land law), the B-BBEE Ownership Requirements (minority-ownership quotas), and the Ramaphosa administration’s position on foreign relations.
President Ramaphosa signed the Expropriation Act into law on January 23, 2025, following years of deliberation. While the South African government emphasizes that the law addresses historical land inequalities and includes provisions for "just and equitable compensation," critics—including some U.S. stakeholders—have expressed concerns about property rights protection.
The Act allows for expropriation with compensation in most cases, though it permits "nil compensation" under specific circumstances. This has prompted legal challenges from groups like AfriForum and the Democratic Alliance (DA), who have filed papers in the Western Cape High Court to challenge its constitutionality.
The issue came to Trump’s attention back in 2018 when Tucker Carlson reported on it. After it was enacted, Trump responded with an executive order halting certain foreign aid to South Africa, citing the Act among other issues. Elon Musk, a close ally of the President and believed to be a key influencer, has publicly criticized the law as "openly racist" due to perceived impacts on property rights, particularly for white farmers—though the South African government maintains the law is not targeting any racial group.
South Africa's Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment (B-BBEE) policy, designed to address economic inequalities stemming from apartheid, has become another friction point. The framework includes measures related to ownership, management control, and enterprise development, with requirements that businesses have at least 30% black ownership.
This policy has affected foreign businesses looking to operate in South Africa, including Elon Musk's Starlink, which contested Section 3(2) of the Electronic Communications Act requiring license applicants to have more than 30% equity ownership held by historically disadvantaged groups. Despite this, Starlink withdrew from regulatory hearings in February 2025, highlighting the challenges posed by these regulations.
Several South African political parties, including the DA, Action SA, and Freedom Front Plus (FF+), have raised concerns about B-BBEE creating regulatory burdens that potentially deter foreign investment.
South Africa's strengthening ties with China and Russia, particularly through BRICS, along with its support for Palestine and possible expansion of nuclear capacity with the bidding from Iran & Russia, have raised concerns in Washington. President Ramaphosa has emphasized South Africa's commitment to non-alignment and resistance to external pressure, asserting the country's sovereignty and strategic autonomy.
This stance has drawn criticism from the Trump administration, with several Republican House members calling for diplomatic disengagement, citing South Africa's alleged "vendetta against Israel" and friendly relations with China.
With the current tensions, the future of AGOA hangs in the balance.
The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), set to expire in September 2025, has become the main focal point of anticipation. This trade preference program, which provides duty-free access to the U.S. market for eligible sub-Saharan African countries, has been crucial for South African exporters.
Several U.S. lawmakers have called for South Africa's removal from AGOA benefits, citing concerns about South Africa's geopolitical alignments. While Senators Risch and Coons introduced a bipartisan bill in April 2024 to renew AGOA for 16 years (until 2041), and in December 2024, Representative John James (R-MI) proposed a 12-year extension, these efforts face headwinds given the administration's stance.
Understanding interests and points of influence is critical to assessing where the bilateral relationship between the U.S. and South Africa might be heading. Below provides a breakdown of some important stakeholders currently driving the key narratives that are likely to shape a new reality between the two countries.
The stakeholder map reveals a network of influence centered around several key figures:
Meanwhile, business interests are represented by figures like Florizelle Liser, who leads the Corporate Council on Africa (CCA) and previously oversaw AGOA implementation, and Witney Schneidman, who has suggested ways to modernize AGOA upon renewal.
Download our exclusive Stakeholder Map to see how these players are connected!
If you rely on AGOA preferences for U.S.-South Africa trade:
As seen in the map, automotive and agricultural imports could be particularly vulnerable to changes in trade preferences, given Trump's portrayal of these sectors as key factors in U.S. economic challenges.
If you have investments or are considering investments in South Africa:
The stakeholder map reveals several key engagement opportunities:
TSC’s real-time stakeholder & issue intelligence platform enables businesses and policymakers to better understand a complex and volatile external environment. Key solutions include:
Contact us for a briefing on how we can help you.
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